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UPPER MANAGEMENT
Fantasy Sports Neighborhood
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Welcome to THE UPPER MANAGEMENT. Fantasy Sports Neighborhood.
You are currently viewing the UM as a guest, which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features.
The UM opened August 17th, 2007 as a handpicked 100 members who were asked to join for their smarts and community involvement. But the word got out that the UM neighborhood is not just your average start up community! .... Members begun jumping in from word of mouth .. and now the UM stands at 300+ members and over 30,000 posts and growing!
The site has it's very own Texas Holdem table which has members playing against each other 24/7! .. MLB Gameday audio only for the community. A live chat room, fantasy leagues with the winner landing up to 100 dollars in prizes. We also have our own FREE Baseball draft kit for our UM members, as well as an upcomming Football draft kit. We run our own monthly MILB prospect list. But most importantly .. The UM has grown into a community of sports friends. So jump in and, join the UM today! |
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Bizplayboy
Website Admin
Joined: 16 Aug 2007
Posts: 5450
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 Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 2:58 pm Post subject: Where Moneyball is concerned, gray areas are the way to go |
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Written By TheGrandSalami at UM-Illustrated. to view either click the blog link at the top left of the forum or
click here: UM-Illustrated
Welcome to UM-Illustrated Salami!
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TheGrandSalami
Joined: 12 Jul 2008
Posts: 203
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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All comments welcomed.
I also didn't copy edit my work well enough, so I never said who was defending Jose Vidro. It was Mariners interim manager Jim Riggleman.
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superpoon
Joined: 24 Sep 2007
Posts: 1300
Location: Bridgeport, CT
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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Very nice article. I really liked the premise.
Although it doesn't delve too deep (obviously you could write a book on that), its very precise and doesn't wander or get disjointed and I appreciate that in a sports article.
It reiterates 2 things. You cannot build a World Series winner with a simple formula. And you cannot pigeon-hole yourself into thinking purely sabermetrics or other stats OR do the same with intangible factors.
Looking forward to more Salami. Mmm, salami.
_________________
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Superpoon GFX Archive
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Koby Schellenger
Inter-Affiliate
Joined: 08 Sep 2007
Posts: 1471
Location: Madison, WI
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| I think you missed the point of Moneyball. It isn't to dive into sabermetrics & live by that, but it's about how to best utilize limited resources. A "Moneyball Philosophy" is absolutely NOT the opposite of a "purist philosophy"
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Bizplayboy
Website Admin
Joined: 16 Aug 2007
Posts: 5450
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:24 pm Post subject: |
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I understand a small amount about Sabremetrics .. but is their anyone here knowledgable to sum up the premise of it and how it applies to evaluation of players compared to other ways to evaluate?.
Last edited by Bizplayboy on Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:32 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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superpoon
Joined: 24 Sep 2007
Posts: 1300
Location: Bridgeport, CT
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Koby Schellenger wrote: |
| I think you missed the point of Moneyball. It isn't to dive into sabermetrics & live by that, but it's about how to best utilize limited resources. A "Moneyball Philosophy" is absolutely NOT the opposite of a "purist philosophy" |
I tried to overlook that because he did make valid points about sabermetric philosophies vs. purists. But yes, Koby's right about that. It's not fair to criticize Moneyball for that, because that's not the premise of that book. Although leaning towards sabermetrics may be a big part of Billy Beane's philosophy, that wasn't the point that they were trying to make. It would have been better to talk about Beane directly instead of going through Moneyball.
Aside from that, which was a misunderstanding, it was pretty well put together.
_________________
This sig is to coerce Michael Clayton out of sucking balls in '08
Superpoon GFX Archive
Last edited by superpoon on Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:37 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Koby Schellenger
Inter-Affiliate
Joined: 08 Sep 2007
Posts: 1471
Location: Madison, WI
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Bizplayboy wrote: |
| I understand a small amount about Sabremetrics .. but is their anyone here knowledgable to sum up the premise of it and how it applies to evaluation of players compared to other ways to evaluate?. |
Sabermetrics is really just more thought out statistics. In a very simplistic sense, it tries to convert baseball events into quantifiable & meaningful numbers. In a perfect world, it would be able to convert all metrics to runs or wins...a strikeout is worth 0.30 runs to the pitching team. Again, that's very simplistic, but it tries to establish a medium for which players can be evaluated on an even playing field.
For example, how do you begin to compare Jose Reyes to Ryan Howard using traditional metrics?
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Koby Schellenger
Inter-Affiliate
Joined: 08 Sep 2007
Posts: 1471
Location: Madison, WI
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Also, some of the assumptions you make, like sabermetrics do not like stolen bases or sacrifices is misguided. Sabermetrics will never suggest a stolen base is a negative. Just that a failed stolen base is far worse than a successful stolen base is good & properly adjusts for this. Specifically on these two issues, sabermetrics points out where these strategies are GOOD & when they should be used.
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TheGrandSalami
Joined: 12 Jul 2008
Posts: 203
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah, I understand that Moneyball is about how he drafts the Jeremy Browns of the world because he doesn't have the money for Scott Boras clients. But Beane find these players by looking at stats like OBP and the like and avoiding the words of an old crusty scout who says "THIS GUY IS COMPETITIVE AND A GAMER!" This is partially based on Beane's own career, where he was overvalued by scouts and never panned out.
And yes, sabermetricians love players like Carlos Beltran who have insane stolen base success rates. But when creating a roster, these skills are often partially eschewed, which is why it's not a coincidence that those A's teams were so leadfooted.
And the way I've always understood sabermetrics is that they are in part responses to poor, misunderstood statistics. For instance, the use of OBP rather than AVG. AVG is a misunderstood stat and since the object of the game is to not make an out, OBP is a much better statistic to use when judging a player's ability to be a leadoff man. But Koby's definition is good as well, and represents how someone like Bill James probably thinks about the subject.
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Koby Schellenger
Inter-Affiliate
Joined: 08 Sep 2007
Posts: 1471
Location: Madison, WI
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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| TheGrandSalami wrote: |
Yeah, I understand that Moneyball is about how he drafts the Jeremy Browns of the world because he doesn't have the money for Scott Boras clients. But Beane find these players by looking at stats like OBP and the like and avoiding the words of an old crusty scout who says "THIS GUY IS COMPETITIVE AND A GAMER!" This is partially based on Beane's own career, where he was overvalued by scouts and never panned out.
And yes, sabermetricians love players like Carlos Beltran who have insane stolen base success rates. But when creating a roster, these skills are often partially eschewed, which is why it's not a coincidence that those A's teams were so leadfooted.
And the way I've always understood sabermetrics is that they are in part responses to poor, misunderstood statistics. For instance, the use of OBP rather than AVG. AVG is a misunderstood stat and since the object of the game is to not make an out, OBP is a much better statistic to use when judging a player's ability to be a leadoff man. But Koby's definition is good as well, and represents how someone like Bill James probably thinks about the subject. |
Once again you're pigeon-holing what Beane is doing. It's not about Jeremy Brown or about Boras clients. Brown wasn't a money issue for Beane & the A's. Beane legitimately felt as if Brown was the best player available.
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TheGrandSalami
Joined: 12 Jul 2008
Posts: 203
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 4:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Beane legitimately felt as if Brown was the best player available. |
My point was a little twisted, but what I meant to say was that he drafted Brown because other GMs thought he was too "fat-bodied" to be a productive catcher, whereas Beane was not focusing on his physical build but rather his ability to play baseball, which is what important.
I hope your not getting the impression that I find Beane to be an idiot, he's one of the best GMs in the game, but I feel like sometimes he's a little too holed up in his perceptions.
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UOKazem
Joined: 13 Jun 2008
Posts: 476
Location: Montclair, New Jersey
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 5:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| My point was a little twisted, but what I meant to say was that he drafted Brown because other GMs thought he was too "fat-bodied" to be a productive catcher, whereas Beane was not focusing on his physical build but rather his ability to play baseball, which is what important. |
Beane didn't ignore Brown's physical build. He just didn't view it as an impairment.
The same happened with the Sox and Pedroia. He was drafted when he was because earlier teams thought his physical build would impair his production as a major league.
As far as the statistics you brought up in reference to the Twins and As in the 2002 season, that's not really a reflection on Beane. The way that the As have been managed in terms of Sac Bunts, SB and SB Attempts, and such is all the Team Manager. Beane really doesn't have much say in terms of how that is done. The 2002 As team was very well capable of playing small ball, and the fact that they didn't really had nothing to do with Beane.
All of the stats and points you bring up about the As reflect the way the team was managed and played, but not how that team was built.
And BTW, Theo Epstein is best friends with Bill James, who is employed by the Red Sox and invented sabermetrics. The 2007 Red Sox were BUILT on sabermetrics. There was an interview with James on 60 minutes a while ago, where he openly said they signed Ortiz based on sabermetrics. The Red Sox have been a sabermetric team for some time now.
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quiksilver
Joined: 22 Sep 2007
Posts: 2184
Location: Californ-i-a
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 6:04 pm Post subject: |
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| UOKazem wrote: |
| As far as the statistics you brought up in reference to the Twins and As in the 2002 season, that's not really a reflection on Beane. The way that the As have been managed in terms of Sac Bunts, SB and SB Attempts, and such is all the Team Manager. Beane really doesn't have much say in terms of how that is done. The 2002 As team was very well capable of playing small ball, and the fact that they didn't really had nothing to do with Beane. |
I'm glad you mentioned this because it's a point I wanted to bring up. While Beane may hire his team's manager-- the way that manager handles the team cannot necessarily be directly put on the shoulders of Beane. Howe and Macha were not known as guys who played the small-ball game in Oakland... now under the management of Bob Geren things have changed ever so slightly, but not much-- the A's are on pace to steal more bases than any other time in the 2000's, but they still do not "sacrifice outs" with the sac hits. Ironically, despite being amidst another firesale- the team's philosophy is slowly changing-- the team owners have been more willing to open their pocket books, and I think they'll make an effort to keep this next bunch of talent. They also got real competitive and signed coveted pitcher Michael Inoa with a record $4.25 million signing bonus. Give it 2 years-- and I see this next crew starting to pan out big time.
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vdogk9
Joined: 14 Sep 2007
Posts: 918
Location: Mars Cheese Castle
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 7:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Nice effort, but I don't buy into the argument which by the way you don't even try to prove. You talk about sabermetrics but you only cite OPS as if that is all there is. What about 'runs created' and 'win shares'? You say 'history shows us...' but you don't elaborate. Why don't YOU 'show' us? You claim the A's had pitching but why are we supposed to just take your word for it? Where's the proof? Lastly, if sac bunts and stolen bases win play-off games, why not try to illustrate exactly how they do so?
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TheGrandSalami
Joined: 12 Jul 2008
Posts: 203
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| Posted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 12:13 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Nice effort, but I don't buy into the argument which by the way you don't even try to prove. You talk about sabermetrics but you only cite OPS as if that is all there is. What about 'runs created' and 'win shares'? You say 'history shows us...' but you don't elaborate. Why don't YOU 'show' us? You claim the A's had pitching but why are we supposed to just take your word for it? Where's the proof? Lastly, if sac bunts and stolen bases win play-off games, why not try to illustrate exactly how they do so? |
I wasn't sure if people would want to read a really long article discussing teams like the '02 Angels and '06 Cards that executed the smallball stuff really well...I decided to only show the surface but I guess I'll go into more detail next time.
And Beane doesn't manage the team, yes, but he is inclined to draft players like the Giambi Bros. who couldn't sac bunt to save their lives. Part of it was the manager, but you can't expect a Tejada or a Chavez to just go up to the plate any old time and drop down a sac bunt. It's not that simple, and managers often learn this when they ask an unsuited player to bunt.
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