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The UM opened August 17th, 2007 as a handpicked 150 members who were asked to join for their smarts and community involvement. But the word got out that the UM neighborhood is not just your average start up community .... Members begun jumping in from word of mouth .. and now the UM stands at almost 300 members and over 30,000 posts and growing!

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(UM/MT's) Top 50 Prospect List (05.02.08)
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Bizplayboy
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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 2:07 pm    Post subject: (UM/MT's) Top 50 Prospect List (05.02.08) Reply with quote Back to top

It gives me great pleasure to introduce to you our first inter-affiliate UM-MT top 50 prospect list!

Through our inter-affiliation, this list was a joint collaboration between Moundtalk.com and the Upper Management.
Koby Schellenger from Moundtalk is widely known around the internet and specifically on prospect sites for his in-depth
analysis on player personnel. So it’s gives me great excitement to have Moundtalk involved in this prospect list.

Minor league Baseball has become an active area in the UM as many of us have made the switch to prospect leagues.
It’s also been a source for managers who want to be updated on the latest top prospects to hit the major leagues for pickup.

The UM/MT top 50 list will include the 50 best prospects in the nation, their previous rank as well as a brief synopsis about
their ranking. This post can be used as a Q&A pertaining to our list, players on our list, players not on our list or anything
else pertaining to prospects and this list.






Last edited by Bizplayboy on Mon Jun 02, 2008 11:14 am; edited 2 times in total
 
Commish
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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Hey guys ... this is great to have something like this!

Koby, I'm a met fan and anytime i have looked at prospect lists, Fernando Martinez is ranked in the top 20. Why is he so low now? is his slow progression pushing him back? Is he not considered a top prospect any longer?

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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Where would Phillippe Aumont, Michael Main and Chris Davis be ranked? I am hoping for good news because these are my best players. lol
 
Koby Schellenger
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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Commish wrote:
Hey guys ... this is great to have something like this!

Koby, I'm a met fan and anytime i have looked at prospect lists, Fernando Martinez is ranked in the top 20. Why is he so low now? is his slow progression pushing him back? Is he not considered a top prospect any longer?



Martinez is still a top prospect. He ranked 28th on my personal ranking entering the year & one month into the season I've dropped him. He certainly could have been included higher on this list & in a preliminary ranking, he was. But a slow start combined with several players playing very well has dropped him to 44. While he is an elite talent, he needs to start showing some production. Repeating Double-A this year, Martinez has produced worse number & seen his peripherals actually worsen.

Moreover, Martinez has always benefitted from the "young for the level" claim which is not holding much water anymore. Yes, he's still young for his age. And yes, he can be a star. And yes, he has a higher ceiling than every outfielder on this list except Jay Bruce but he also has a floor that is perhaps the lowest on the entire list.
 
Koby Schellenger
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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Derek Jeter 02 wrote:
Where would Phillippe Aumont, Michael Main and Chris Davis be ranked? I am hoping for good news because these are my best players. lol



Aumont is in the picture though not necessarily close. I've been trying to see him for a while now but the weather hasn't been good and the two times I've tried to get out & see him have been rained out. Aumont is probably around the 80-range and that is a reflection of graduations, not anything he's done. Though once I get a chance to see him in person, I may be more confident in moving him up.

Main is right on the brink of being a Top 100 prospect. He's another guy I hope to see this month.

Chris Davis is someone Biz & I discussed in detail. I think he's a close guy but I didn't want to see him on this list because I'm not convinced he'll be a Major League average first baseman. He has been very lucky the last two seasons. Take a look at his page on firstinning.com & you'll see a low line drive rate (concerning enough alone) & a high BABIP indicating he's been fairly lucky. Further, he fans too frequently and walks too rarely. This concerns me because it prohibits his ability to be productive while in a slump. Guys who draw more walks tend to be less streaky & can better weather poor production storms. And of course, striking out is bad, walking is good. The move to first base as opposed to corner outfield really hurts his prospect status as it makes it abundantly clear that for him to be a productive player, he's going to be judged in comparison to Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixiera and Justin Morneau.
 
Im Ross

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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 5:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Koby, in the next edition can you add the teams that these prospects play on? Because I am looking to see if their are any Tiger prospects to look out for and I have no way of knowing who they are.
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Koby Schellenger
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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Im Ross wrote:
Koby, in the next edition can you add the teams that these prospects play on? Because I am looking to see if their are any Tiger prospects to look out for and I have no way of knowing who they are.


Rick Porcello is the only Tiger that will be on this list all year, barring a trade. Hate to burst your bubble. But sure thing. We'll get Team & Position next time.
 
darko

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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Very good list Koby. 2 very aggressive rankings (Cahill and Swarzak), Trevor Cahill has been unreal this year and this is the highest ranking I've seen for Swarzak so far. Whats your opinion on Swarzak? Upside?

Carlos Gonzalez is another prospect (along with Bruce and Rasmus) who has absolutely nothing to prove in minors. Frank Thomas addition now means that he is unlikely to be up before the All Star Break - barring any injuries off course...

Couple surprising omissions: Carlos Triunfel, Deolis Guerra, Taylor Teargarden. How close were these guys to making the list?
 
Koby Schellenger
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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

darko wrote:
Very good list Koby. 2 very aggressive rankings (Cahill and Swarzak), Trevor Cahill has been unreal this year and this is the highest ranking I've seen for Swarzak so far. Whats your opinion on Swarzak? Upside?

Carlos Gonzalez is another prospect (along with Bruce and Rasmus) who has absolutely nothing to prove in minors. Frank Thomas addition now means that he is unlikely to be up before the All Star Break - barring any injuries off course...

Couple surprising omissions: Carlos Triunfel, Deolis Guerra, Taylor Teargarden. How close were these guys to making the list?


Swarzak is an interesting case. While I'm not as high as Biz is on him, he certainly has proved a lot in the minors.

Triunfel wasn't close, nor was Guerra
Teagarden wasn't discussed but he's much closer for me than either of those two.
 
Bizplayboy
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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 7:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Some of the ommisions which deserve an honorable mention were Chris Davis, Jesus Montero and Matt Antonelli. I guess you can call them our honorable mention list. Then their were players who made huge jumps from previous rankings who did not make the list but deserve some mentioning .. such as a Jaime Garcia, Craig italiano and Henry Rodriguez.
 
Grid

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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

darko wrote:
Couple surprising omissions: Carlos Triunfel, Deolis Guerra, Taylor Teargarden. How close were these guys to making the list?

Even if you believe in them those three are fringe players on a 50 man prospect list vzcoolz1

I always like looking at well constructed lists like these, especially when they come out with regularity. I find it interesting that between Feb and now, a prospect like Hurley's struggles knock him right off the list from the middle of the pack yet the incredibly pathetic start that Snider has had isn't costing him much at all. Do you find that the top 20 is pretty much set yet interchangable this early in the season but a top 30-40 prospect can fall off all together?
 
superpoon

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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Hehe... 6 Rays on the list. Awesome.
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darko

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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 7:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Bizplayboy wrote:
Some of the ommisions which deserve an honorable mention were Chris Davis, Jesus Montero and Matt Antonelli. I guess you can call them our honorable mention list. Then their were players who made huge jumps from previous rankings who did not make the list but deserve some mentioning .. such as a Jaime Garcia, Craig italiano and Henry Rodriguez.


Yeah Matt Antonelli was abit unlucky to miss out. Davis a tad unlucky too - Biz would have him in top 10 vzcoolz1 vzcoolz1 - MAN CRUSHHHHH.
 
Koby Schellenger
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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

Grid wrote:
darko wrote:
Couple surprising omissions: Carlos Triunfel, Deolis Guerra, Taylor Teargarden. How close were these guys to making the list?

Even if you believe in them those three are fringe players on a 50 man prospect list vzcoolz1

I always like looking at well constructed lists like these, especially when they come out with regularity. I find it interesting that between Feb and now, a prospect like Hurley's struggles knock him right off the list from the middle of the pack yet the incredibly pathetic start that Snider has had isn't costing him much at all. Do you find that the top 20 is pretty much set yet interchangable this early in the season but a top 30-40 prospect can fall off all together?


Part of it is the addition of BizPlayBoy to the creating, so there will be more interesting & observable changes between this one & June's. But Hurley probably dropped 15 slots or so for me this year. Triple-A shouldn't be this challenging for him. He's not pitching in too poor of environments & I'm losing faith, plus other players have been doing very well like Craig Italiano & Trevor Cahill. On the other hand, Travis Snider has played well the last couple games & is 19 in Double-A in his second full season. I also see a significant difference in terms of scouting traits, so to speak, between Snider & Hurley meaning that even if the stats aren't there for Snider, I know he's got the tools where Hurley's tools aren't as good & needs to rely on good performance.

For the most part, yes. There's the top 22 in this list that are, in my opinion, well beyond the 23rd and up at this point. There is a larger gap between these guys individually than the 23+ guys for sure. How close is #50 to #23? If Villalona hits .400/.470/.650 this month, there might be 23 in that top group...

I wouldn't necessarily say the next 20 or so are interchangable, but each individual prospect might be interchangable with the prospect on either side...not necessarily in an A=B & B=C::A=C way but more in a A?B & I'm reasonably confident A>C way. So the pitchers ranked 23-28 might be fairly interchangable with each other but I'm pretty sure Ian Kennedy is going to be better than Justin Masterson, but I could be swayed in a collaborative list to agree Kennedy & Jarrod Parker should be flipped.
 
Koby Schellenger
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 PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2008 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Back to top

superpoon wrote:
Hehe... 6 Rays on the list. Awesome.


And Jeremy Hellickson might be there soon too. Plus, in July you might add another one.
 
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