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UPPER MANAGEMENT
Fantasy Sports Neighborhood
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Welcome to THE UPPER MANAGEMENT. Fantasy Sports Neighborhood.
You are currently viewing the UM as a guest, which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features.
The UM opened August 17th, 2007 as a handpicked 100 members who were asked to join for their smarts and community involvement. But the word got out that the UM neighborhood is not just your average start up community! .... Members begun jumping in from word of mouth .. and now the UM stands at 300+ members and over 30,000 posts and growing!
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Bizplayboy
Website Admin
Joined: 16 Aug 2007
Posts: 5450
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 Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: Second-Half Starting Pitcher Rankings; Top 60 |
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| Written By UOKazem at UM-Illustrated. to view either click the blog link at the top left of the forum or click here: UM-Illustrated
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Bizplayboy
Website Admin
Joined: 16 Aug 2007
Posts: 5450
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: |
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Hey Kazem.
Nice list Kaz, and very well thought out. Now let's get to the nuts and bolts of it all. If this is a mid season rankings system then you HAVE to have CC Sabathia as a tier 1. After a dismal start, His overall numbers are very good (10-8, 3.30 ERA, 155 Inn, 137 Hits 154K's) but more impressive is what hes done since becoming a brewer, he's basicaly been unhittable (4-0, 0.68 ERA, 33 Inn, 20 Hits 31 SO)
I would like your thoughts on this.
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UOKazem
Joined: 13 Jun 2008
Posts: 476
Location: Montclair, New Jersey
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:15 pm Post subject: |
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I made the mistake of trading CC for Verlander early on in the season. It really came back to bite me, and ever since I've been watching CC pitch with awe, wishing I never traded him. He's a fantastic pitcher in his own right.
However, I do have concerns about how much he's pitching. The way it looks to me, the Brewers don't think that they'll be able to resign him, and they're going to be pitching him deep game after game trying to get as much as they can out of him before he leaves the team.
From 03-06, he pitched anywhere from 188-198 innings per season. Last year it spiked to 240+, and anytime a pitcher pitches 30 IP more than then they ever have, that's a red flag for health. Take that number and bump it up to 50, and that's my first concern. I think he'll be absolutely fantastic through August, and I think he'll be good in September. But I don't think he'll be AS good as the other pitchers in my "first tier". Last year we saw all the work he did take a toll on him in the playoffs, and I would not be surprised, in fact I expect it to take a similar though less drastic toll this September.
Second, I don't like the bullpen behind him. As good as CC's been, in 18 starts he's been at 100 pitches 16 times (97,98 are the other two), and frequently over 110 and 120. He can't keep throwing THAT many pitches, and on days when he leaves in the sixth or seventh inning I wouldn't trust his bullpen to hold any kind of close lead. After Torres, that bullpen is very, very, very ugly.
Third, the Brewers offense has been very sporadic this season. He's bound to get some dud offensive performances behind him, where he gets 0-2 runs in support over 9+ innings.
What it really comes down to for me, is I see the pitchers in the "first tier" all ending up with more wins than Sabathia from here on out, similar ERAs, a similar WHIP, and probably not as many strikeouts.
Granted, I wouldn't call the difference between the first two tiers large. Johan Santana is in Sabathia's tier, and with in that tier you could switch Sabathia with anyone above him and it wouldn't mean anything to me. I think they'll all perform that closely.
Durability concerns, a bad bullpen, and a sporadic offense concern me with Sabathia. Of course I have him ranked behind 8 of the other best pitchers in baseball, so he's hardly low. I wouldn't say it was disagreeable for anyone to rank him as high as 5th, but I'm just not 100% sold on high ace production. The low ace production is a give in.
(If I had to divide Sabathia's tier, it's 6-9, then 10-17. And it's really almost interchangeable with in those segments.)
Of course, I also happen to think that NL Central offense is stronger than the AL Central versus lefties. Once teams get a chance to scout him more in the NL, he'll be great anyway, but his numbers will be more reasonable.
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Scaps
Joined: 15 Sep 2007
Posts: 599
Location: Boston
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:34 pm Post subject: |
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| I would substitute any number of the tier 2 pitchers with Josh Beckett. He has not pitched like an ace, not this season.
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TheGrandSalami
Joined: 12 Jul 2008
Posts: 203
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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Actually, knowing UOKazem, I expected a horrid list, but it's pretty accurate.
But seriously, Beckett above Santana? Are you mad? Santana has given up almost a full run less this year and has more strikeouts. Yes, he has one less win, due only to bad luck.
Santana is a well known second half performer. His career ERA is .63 lower in the second half, and he has just one less win in the second half in his career compared to the first, despite 25 fewer starts.
Beckett is also a good second half player, but his WHIP has historically gone up in the second half.
Also, no love for Justin Duchscherer? I get he won't keep this up, but you've got to put him higher than a 4, no?
Otherwise, surprisingly good.
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superpoon
Joined: 24 Sep 2007
Posts: 1300
Location: Bridgeport, CT
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:20 pm Post subject: |
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| TheGrandSalami wrote: |
| Actually, knowing UOKazem, I expected a horrid list, but it's pretty accurate. |
lol, harsh.
| TheGrandSalami wrote: |
| But seriously, Beckett above Santana? Are you mad? Santana has given up almost a full run less this year and has more strikeouts. Yes, he has one less win, due only to bad luck. |
Santana isn't a Sawk.
_________________
This sig is to coerce Michael Clayton out of sucking balls in '08
Superpoon GFX Archive
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TheGrandSalami
Joined: 12 Jul 2008
Posts: 203
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 11:57 pm Post subject: |
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He's an old pal of mine, we dis each other all the time.
| Quote: |
| Santana isn't a Sawk. |
Oh I know why he put Beckett there, I'm just making sure he knows it makes no sense.
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Delbert6
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Posts: 1674
Location: Maine
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| Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 12:00 am Post subject: |
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"Once teams get a chance to scout him more?"
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Color me confused-
How is it that the NL has no scouting data on last years AL Cy Young winner?
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UOKazem
Joined: 13 Jun 2008
Posts: 476
Location: Montclair, New Jersey
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| Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 12:25 am Post subject: |
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Alright, as far as the Red Sox go;
As leniant as I was with Beckett, I was that harsh on Dice-K who's pitched great this year.
The Beckett Ranking;
It's important to consider how the Red Sox are managed. Francona has become notorious for his resting pitchers, which keeps them fresh and really allows them to produce year-round more than any other pitchers.
Second; Josh Beckett has outperformed Johan Santana in three out of four categories this year. At first glance, he has one more win, a .05 lower WHIP, 7 less Ks, and an ERA .93 higher. HOWEVER;
He's made three less starts than Santana because of earlier season injury. Though that doesn't help his value up until now, he's completely recovered from that injury. Right now, he is averaging higher K/9 AND higher K/Start (Roto/H2H leagues). He's got 7 less strikeouts than Santana in 3 less starts and 18 less innings. He also has one less win in three less starts.
So when you look at it, Beckett has really outproduced Johan in 3/4 categories up until this point. And I expect him to outproduce in FOUR for the rest of the year. Beckett may not be the 3.27 ERA pitcher he was last year, but he's not a 3.98 ERA pitcher. He has a 3.76 average over his career, and an ERA under 3.4 in 3/5 full seasons he's pitched.
Josh Beckett's ERA has been the result of poor luck more than bad pitching. With an ERA of 1.16, you have to expect his ERA to regress, just like ERAs of 1.5+ cause you to expect the opposite.
People have looked at Beckett's ERA and undervalued him. Of all starters in baseball, Beckett has the 13th K/9, 16th WHIP, and his Win/Starts is also top 15. Though his current ERA is 46th, you can expect him to produce at worst a 3.5 from here on out, which would rank top 25.
A stater who posts a top15/top/15/top15/top25 (Ks, WHIP, Ws, ERA) from here on out is a top 5 pitcher in my book, especially when he has the potential to far exceed all those numbers.
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vdogk9
Joined: 14 Sep 2007
Posts: 918
Location: Mars Cheese Castle
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| Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 12:33 am Post subject: |
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| Why is Bedard on this list?
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darko
Joined: 19 Sep 2007
Posts: 5356
Location: Melbourne, AUS
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| Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 3:50 am Post subject: |
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Nice work Kazem...
Some of the issues I have with this list:
1. Ryan Dempster at tier 5. The guy has been money all year, especially at home (10-1, 2.81 ERA)
2. Francisco Liriano at tier 6. I expect Liriano to make significant contributions in the 2nd half, he's tearing AAA apart. I would put him in tier 3 or 4.
3. Santana needs to be in tier 1. 2nd half pitcher and Mets offense is finally waking up.
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UOKazem
Joined: 13 Jun 2008
Posts: 476
Location: Montclair, New Jersey
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| Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 10:27 am Post subject: |
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1. I'm not a believer in Ryan Dempster. At all. Probably can't find a person who thinks he'll choke more than I do. He's been pitching way over his head, and every couple weeks from here on out I'm expecting his ERA to rise consistently.
2. I love Liriano. Drafted him in the early rounds in a couple fantasy leagues. Talent-wise, even post TJ he'd probably make it into my top 20 pitchers. Even though his triple A stats have been great with 42 Ks and 4 BBs over his past 35 innings, and winning 9 out of his past 10, at this point in the season, every week he's not up in the majors really diminishes his value for me, and I could see the Twins waiting another couple weeks (not that I agree they should). In addition, AAA stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, I like to remove at least 2 from the K/9, add at least .2 to the WHIP, and add at least 1 to the ERA. When you convert his AAA stats, consider the wins he way not get with the twins, and consider that he may not be called up for a bit, the downside for me brings him down to the spot I have him at. It's also the same reason I have Rich Hill unranked.
3. Everyone keeps saying Santana's a second half pitcher. I don't think he performs a "Santana-Esque" second half this year. I'm calling it right now. (Would I list be good if there were no gambles taken?)
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TheGrandSalami
Joined: 12 Jul 2008
Posts: 203
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:36 am Post subject: |
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Way to not be a believer in Ryan Dempster. He's been unhittable in the second half. 10 Ks yesterday. Oh and by the way:
Since July 24 (when this article was posted):
Johan Santana
5 G, 38.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 W, 1.65 ERA, .84 WHIP (!), 28 K
Josh Beckett
5 G, 29.1 IP, 19 ER, 2 W, 5.88 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 32 K
Way to knock that ball right out of the park.
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Cranky Canuck
Joined: 07 Jul 2008
Posts: 1164
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:48 am Post subject: |
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Beckett was drilled again by the Jays yesterday.It looked like he was tossing BP to them.
2.1 innings 8 Hits 8 Earned Runs 3k's and a walk.
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